Question 1

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

Accepted Answer

A)   0
B)   .01
C)   .1
D)   .5
E)   1.0F) A) and B)
G) None of the above

Question 2

Forecasting techniques that are based on time series data assume that future values of the series will duplicate past values.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 3

The purpose of the forecast should be established first so that the level of detail,amount of resources,and accuracy level can be indicated.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

What is this week's forecast using the naive approach?

Accepted Answer

A)   35
B)   50
C)   52
D)   65
E)   78F) A) and C)
G) C) and D)

Question 5

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is:

Accepted Answer

A)   a naive forecast.
B)   a simple moving average forecast.
C)   a centred moving average forecast.
D)   an exponentially smoothed forecast.
E)   an associative forecast.F) A) and B)
G) A) and C)

Question 6

Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is:

Accepted Answer

A)   a moving average forecast.
B)   a naive forecast.
C)   an exponentially smoothed forecast.
D)   an associative forecast.
E)   none of the choices are true.F) B) and C)
G) A) and C)

Question 7

-What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?

Accepted Answer

The recent 6 period data has a...

Question 8

Which of the following might be used to forecast the cyclical component of a time series?

Accepted Answer

A)   An associated leading variable
B)   Centred moving average (CM
A)  
C)   Delphi technique
D)   Exponential smoothing
E)   Seasonal relativesF) A) and C)
G) A) and E)

Question 9

Which technique is useful in computing seasonal relatives?

Accepted Answer

A)   Double smoothing
B)   Delphi technique
C)   MSE
D)   Centred moving average
E)   Exponential smoothingF) C) and D)
G) B) and C)

Question 10

The two most important factors in choosing a forecasting technique are:

Accepted Answer

A)   cost and time horizon.
B)   accuracy and time horizon.
C)   cost and accuracy.
D)   all of the choices are correct.
E)   none of the choices are correct.F) A) and C)
G) None of the above

Question 11

What is the forecast for this year using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha(1) = .05 and alpha(2) = 0.3,if the forecast for last year was 21,000,the forecast for two years ago was 19,000,and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 1,500?

Accepted Answer

A)   18,750
B)   19,500
C)   21,000
D)   22650
E)   22,800F) A) and D)
G) B) and E)

Question 12

Given an actual demand of 105,a predicted value of 97,and an alpha of .4,the simple exponential smoothing forecast for the next period would be:

Accepted Answer

A)   80.8
B)   93.8
C)   100.2
D)   101.8
E)   108.2F) A) and E)
G) A) and D)

Question 13

What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .4,if last year's smoothed forecast was 2600?

Accepted Answer

A)   2,600
B)   2,760
C)   2,800
D)   3,840
E)   3,000F) C) and D)
G) A) and C)

Question 14

Forecasts can help a manager to do all of the following EXCEPT:

Accepted Answer

A)   reduce uncertainty in planning.
B)   design the system.
C)   plan the medium-term use of the system.
D)   schedule the short-term use of the system.
E)   predict the future precisely.F) A) and B)
G) D) and E)

Question 15

Given an actual demand of 57,a previous forecast of 62,and an alpha of .3,what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

Accepted Answer

A)   36.9
B)   57.5
C)   60.5
D)   62.5
E)   65.5F) D) and E)
G) B) and D)

Question 16

Determining the purpose of the forecast is an important first step in the forecasting process because it dictates:
I.the level of detail required in the forecast
II.the amount of resources that can be justified
III.the level of accuracy required

Accepted Answer

A)   I and II only
B)   I and III only
C)   II and III only
D)   I, II, and III only
E)   none of the choices are trueF) D) and E)
G) B) and E)

Question 17

The primary difference between seasonality and cycles is:

Accepted Answer

A)   the duration of the repeating patterns.
B)   the magnitude of the variation.
C)   the ability to attribute the pattern to a cause.
D)   all of the choices are differences.
E)   none of the choices are differences.F) C) and D)
G) A) and B)

Question 18

Forecasts for groups of items tend to be less accurate than forecasts for individual items because forecasts for individual items are not subject to as many influencing factors.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 19

Demand for the last four months was:
  (i)Predict demand for July using each of these methods:
(1)a 3-period moving average
(2)exponential smoothing with alpha equal to .20
(ii)If the naive approach had been used to predict demand for April through June,what would MAD have been for those months?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Demand for the last four months was:
...

Question 20

Moving average forecasting techniques:

Accepted Answer

A)   immediately reflect changing patterns in the time series.
B)   lead changes in the time series.
C)   smooth variations in the time series.
D)   all of the choices are true.
E)   none of the choices are true.F) B) and C)
G) C) and E)

Exam 3: Demand Forecasting

Forecasts for groups of items tend to be less accurate than forecasts for individual items because forecasts for individual items are not subject to as many influencing factors.

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Given an actual demand of 57,a previous forecast of 62,and an alpha of .3,what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

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What is the forecast for this year using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha(1) = .05 and alpha(2) = 0.3,if the forecast for last year was 21,000,the forecast for two years ago was 19,000,and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 1,500?

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Forecasts can help a manager to do all of the following EXCEPT:

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Which technique is useful in computing seasonal relatives?

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What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .4,if last year's smoothed forecast was 2600?

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A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is:

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Moving average forecasting techniques:

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Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Determining the purpose of the forecast is an important first step in the forecasting process because it dictates: I.the level of detail required in the forecast II.the amount of resources that can be justified III.the level of accuracy required

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Given an actual demand of 105,a predicted value of 97,and an alpha of .4,the simple exponential smoothing forecast for the next period would be:

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The primary difference between seasonality and cycles is:

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Which of the following might be used to forecast the cyclical component of a time series?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The purpose of the forecast should be established first so that the level of detail,amount of resources,and accuracy level can be indicated.

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-What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?

Correct AnswerverifiedThe recent 6 period data has a...View AnswerShow Answer

What is this week's forecast using the naive approach?

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Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is:

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Forecasting techniques that are based on time series data assume that future values of the series will duplicate past values.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Demand for the last four months was: (i)Predict demand for July using each of these methods: (1)a 3-period moving average (2)exponential smoothing with alpha equal to .20 (ii)If the naive approach had been used to predict demand for April through June,what would MAD have been for those months?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The two most important factors in choosing a forecasting technique are:

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The recent 6 period data has a...
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