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Exam 3: Demand Forecasting

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Question 31

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MAPE measures the:

A) mean actual produced error.
B) mean absolute percent error.
C) main accuracy percent evaluation.
D) mean absolute produced error.
E) mean average percent error.

F) A) and B)
G) A) and C)

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Question 32

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Which of the following is used for constructing a control chart?

A) Mean absolute deviation (MAD)
B) Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)
C) Tracking signal (TS)
D) Actual - forecast
E) None of the choices are correct.

F) C) and E)
G) C) and D)

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Question 33

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What is this week's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

Use linear regression to develop a predictive model for demand for ironing board covers based on sales of irons. (i)Develop the equation. (ii)What is the coefficient of correlation for this data?

The forecasting method which uses anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast is:

The square root of MSE is used to estimate the sample standard deviation of forecast errors.

Develop a linear trend equation for the data on bread deliveries shown below.Forecast deliveries for period 11 through 14.

What is the forecast for this year using a four-year simple moving average?

A manager wants to choose one of two forecasting alternatives.Each alternative was tested using historical data.The resulting forecast errors for the two are shown in the table.Analyze the data and recommend a course of action to the manager.

Which of the following steps is considered the last step in the forecasting process?

Averaging forecasting techniques are useful for: I.distinguishing between random and non-random variations II.smoothing out fluctuations in data III.forecasting cyclical time series

Which of the following is not necessarily an element of a good forecast?

In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving average technique,the number of data points in the average should be:

Consider the data below: (i)Determine a naive forecast for period 14. (ii)Using exponential smoothing with a = .2,and F 12 = 80,what would the forecast for period 14 be?

-What is the centred moving average for each season?

Moving average and exponential smoothing forecasting techniques are used for long range forecasts.

-What are this and next year's forecasts using the least squares trend line for these data?

A manager uses the following equation to predict monthly receipts: Yt= 40,000 + 150t.What is the forecast for December if t = 0 for the month of April?

The use of a control chart assumes that errors are normally distributed about a mean of zero.

Disadvantages of naive forecasts include: I.time-consuming to prepare II.the techniques are complex therefore difficult to understand III.do not smooth random variations